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Supervised Programming for Customer Churn

Chloé Winters

STA 551

Fall 2025

Overview

Introduction

Introduction

Data

Variables

  • Sex: (cat)
  • MaritalStatus: (cat)
  • Term: (num)
  • Phoneservice: (cat)
  • Internationalplan: (cat)
  • Voicemailplan: (cat)
  • Multipleline: (cat)
  • Internetservice: (cat)
  • Technicalsupport: (cat)
  • StreamingVideos: (cat)
  • Agreementperiod: (cat)
  • MonthlyCharges: (num)
  • TotalCharges: (num)
  • Churn: (cat)

Exploratory Data Analysis

Distribution of Churn

Continuous Variable Distribution by Churn

Methodology & Analysis

Logistic Regression

Logistic Regression

Full Model

Full Logistic Regression Model Results (Odds Ratios)
Predictor Odds Ratio p-value
(Intercept) 1.410 0.751
SexMale 0.941 0.777
MaritalStatusSingle 1.022 0.961
Term 0.927 0.000
PhoneserviceYes 1.005 0.994
InternationalplanYes 1.106 0.700
VoicemailplanYes 0.852 0.463
MultiplelineNo phone NA NA
MultiplelineYes 0.853 0.543
InternetserviceDSL 0.588 0.261
InternetserviceFiber optic 0.843 0.538
InternetserviceNo Internet 0.145 0.038
TechnicalsupportNo internet NA NA
TechnicalsupportYes 0.665 0.142
StreamingVideosNo internet NA NA
StreamingVideosYes 1.365 0.369
AgreementperiodOne year contract 0.200 0.000
AgreementperiodTwo year contract 0.119 0.000
MonthlyCharges 1.003 0.857
TotalCharges 1.001 0.003

Reduced Model

Reduced Logistic Regression Model Results (Odds Ratios)
Predictor Odds Ratio p-value
(Intercept) 1.630 0.061
Term 0.926 0.000
InternetserviceDSL 0.556 0.065
InternetserviceFiber optic 0.894 0.671
InternetserviceNo Internet 0.129 0.000
AgreementperiodOne year contract 0.181 0.000
AgreementperiodTwo year contract 0.101 0.000
TotalCharges 1.001 0.000

Stepwise Logistic Results

Stepwise Logistic Regression Results (Odds Ratios)
Predictor Odds Ratio p-value
(Intercept) 0.606 0.319
Term 0.927 0.000
TechnicalsupportNo internet 0.270 0.011
TechnicalsupportYes 0.637 0.080
AgreementperiodOne year contract 0.200 0.000
AgreementperiodTwo year contract 0.117 0.000
MonthlyCharges 1.012 0.079
TotalCharges 1.001 0.003

Perceptron Model

Full Model

Full Perceptron Neural Network – Result Matrix
Metric Value
error 0.0126
reached.threshold 0.0095
steps 100.0000
Intercept.to.1layhid1 -1.5170
SexFemale.to.1layhid1 -0.5295
SexMale.to.1layhid1 -0.6308
MaritalStatusSingle.to.1layhid1 -0.2157
PhoneserviceYes.to.1layhid1 -1.9458
InternationalplanYes.to.1layhid1 -0.3901
VoicemailplanYes.to.1layhid1 -0.2306
MultiplelineNo.phone..to.1layhid1 -2.2922
MultiplelineYes.to.1layhid1 -0.0478
InternetserviceDSL.to.1layhid1 -0.4440
InternetserviceFiber.optic.to.1layhid1 -0.3280
InternetserviceNo.Internet.to.1layhid1 -0.8579
TechnicalsupportNo.internet..to.1layhid1 -0.6097
TechnicalsupportYes.to.1layhid1 -0.1890
StreamingVideosNo.internet..to.1layhid1 0.6980
StreamingVideosYes.to.1layhid1 -0.0192
AgreementperiodOne.year.contract.to.1layhid1 -0.5605
AgreementperiodTwo.year.contract.to.1layhid1 -0.4707
ChurnYes.to.1layhid1 10.8148
Termscale.to.1layhid1 -1.3392
MonthlyChargesscale.to.1layhid1 0.5239
TotalChargesscale.to.1layhid1 0.0469
Intercept.to.Churnnum -5.2526
1layhid1.to.Churnnum 10.1725

Reduced Model

Reduced Perceptron Neural Network – Result Matrix
Metric Value
error 49.5837
reached.threshold 0.0086
steps 2002.0000
Intercept.to.1layhid1 -0.2363
Termscale.to.1layhid1 5.9524
TotalChargesscale.to.1layhid1 -7.0861
AgreementperiodOne.year.contract.to.1layhid1 1.2362
AgreementperiodTwo.year.contract.to.1layhid1 2.5294
Intercept.to.Churnnum 3.1122
1layhid1.to.Churnnum -6.8599

Decision Trees

Non-Penalized Decision Tree

Penalized Decision Tree (False Negatives)

Penalized Decision Tree (False Positives)

ROC Curves

Logistic ROC

 Model AUC 1 Full Logistic 0.8042817 2
Reduced Logistic 0.7915127 3 Stepwise Logistic 0.8081395

Perceptron ROC

 Model AUC 1 Full Perceptron 1.0000000 2 Reduced Perceptron
0.7410074

Decision ROC

Bagging

Bagging

Results & Conclusion

Results & Conclusions

[ \text{Churn} = -0.5002 - 0.0758(\text{Term}) - 1.309(\text{TSNoInternet}) - 0.451(\text{TSYes}) \ - 1.612(\text{OneYear}) - 2.146(\text{TwoYear}) \ + 0.01183(\text{MonthlyCharges}) + 0.000642(\text{TotalCharges}) ]

General Discussion

General Discussion

Thank You

Questions?